BISR analyst Alexei Avdonin discussed Libya's economy on Alpha Radio and SB TV on February 20, 2020, musing on how cooperation with this African country could benefit Belarus. The discussion was prompted by the visit of a Libyan delegation led by Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army. The BIC found that the likely reason for the meeting was not social and humanitarian cooperation, as reported by state media, but rather military collaboration.
"Just before the broadcast, we were discussing and reviewing the economic indicators for this country and were surprised to see that the official statistics show a GDP growth rate of 17.5% for 2023. This is probably the highest growth rate currently among sovereign national economies in the region. Moreover, when we look at the GDP figures, it's $168 billion. That's a very high number," Avdonin noted.
The data cited by the analyst can be found in a Wikipedia article about Libya. However, this is not the most reliable source of information.
According to statistics from the African Development Bank, Libya's GDP grew by 13% in 2023. But this figure is explained by a low base value, as the country's GDP had decreased by nearly 4% the previous year.
Libya's GDP is unstable because it depends on oil production volumes, which fluctuate. International Monetary Fund (IMF) was giving positive forecasts for Libya's GDP growth in 2024, predicting nearly 8%. However, by the end of the year, World Bank Group experts were expecting a 3% decrease. The oil production shutdown was the deciding factor for such change in economic forecasts.
The IMF estimates Libya's GDP to be 1.5 times lower than that of Belarus. And in terms of purchasing power parity, it is 2.5 times lower.