Context: Péter Magyar’s Tisza party won Hungary’s parliamentary election on April 12 by a large margin. Viktor Orbán, who has held power for the past 16 years, admitted defeat and congratulated his rival on his victory. The vote took place amid international scandals and accusations of foreign interference. Shortly before the election, recordings of conversations between Viktor Orbán and Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó with Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov surfaced. They revealed that Budapest had discussed its position with Moscow on issues including sanctions and Ukraine’s accession to the EU. For his part, Orbán blamed the interference on Kyiv and Brussels, saying they sought to remove him from office.
On April 9, 2026, Piotr Piatrouski, the Secretary for Ideology of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Belarus and a political scientist, said on Belarusian Radio’s First National Channel that, before the election in Hungary, Viktor Orbán was leading in all major polls. When asked by host Dzmitry Rubashny if Orbán would remain in power, Piatrouski responded:
“Of the available projections, 48% say ‘yes.’ Furthermore, even EU-funded and EU-commissioned projections show Orbán at 36% support and Tisza at 32%. Internal Hungarian polls indicate Orbán at 46–48% and Tisza at 22–26%. <...> Therefore, Orbán is likely to retain his power.”
This description creates the impression that the pre-election polling datawas unambiguous and, regardless of the source, showed the incumbent prime minister’s advantage. However, this is not the case. Before the election, poll results varied significantly depending on the polling organization. Pro-government pollsters claimed that Orbán was in the lead, with his rival trailing by eight to ten percentage points.
However, pollsters that conducted surveys independently or on behalf of Hungarian opposition media published opposite results. According to these data, Péter Magyar was in the lead, with Viktor Orbán trailing by six to 20 percentage points.
The uncertainty was also evident in the fact that even the Russian media outlets loyal to Orbán acknowledged that there was no clear favorite in the election.
The electoral system itself also created additional intrigue. The Hungarian parliament is formed according to a mixed model. Most mandates are distributed in single-mandate districts where voters elect specific candidates. A smaller number of mandates are distributed through party lists. Therefore, party preference polls did not provide a complete picture of how voters would vote in individual districts.