Context: January 2026 was the coldest in Poland in 16 years. From early November through February 11, Polish police reported that 46 people died from hypothermia. This is the highest number of weather-related deaths in the last four years.
How did Belarus survive the frosts? Looking for an answer to this question, the host and guests of the Nashe Vremya program on Belarus 4 TV discussed the country’s achievements in electrifying settlements that would not be economically viable to connect to the gas pipeline. Viktar Varabyou, the deputy dean of the law faculty at Gomel State University, called this fact and the state-regulated electricity prices “another facet of the Belarusian model” of the welfare state. They then moved on to the Polish model. According to Alexander Dobryan, the presenter and director of TV and Radio Company Gomel, the country failed to cope with the freezing weather due to sanctions imposed on Belarus.
“In Poland, people are freezing in their apartments. As we have mentioned in our review, dozens of people froze to death in their homes there. In the fuel pellet market in Poland, reviews and customer comments say: ‘We called the store, and they said no deliveries are expected for the next eight weeks’<…>,” Dobryan said on the show aired on February 8, 2026.
“The largest producer of pellets and supplier to the Lithuanian and Polish markets was Belarus. <…> Therefore, the refusal to buy them and the sanctions they imposed have, in fact, now backfired on them,” noted Andrey Grigoriev, Corresponding Member of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus and professor.
“Look. We often say that it’s unclear who has suffered more from the sanctions — us or those who imposed them. But now it is ordinary Polish pensioners and families who are paying the price for these sanctions, unable to heat their homes without the inexpensive fuel that used to be supplied from Belarus,” the host concluded.
There is indeed a shortage of pellets in Poland. Local specialized publications have reported this. Consumption has increased because of frost, while production has decreased. Wood has frozen, and machinery cannot withstand the low temperatures, so it breaks down. However, the Polish Ministry of Energy suspects that pellet sellers are conspiring to inflate prices amid growing market demand artificially.
Before March 2022, Belarusian pellet imports to Poland accounted for nearly one-third of the country’s total pellet imports. Ukraine has always been the main supplier, though. However, Poland is a major pellet producer itself. Even in peak years, Belarusian supplies amounted to no more than 6% of Poland’s domestic pellet production.Therefore, claims that sanctions against Minsk are the cause of the pellet shortage are ungrounded.
