Context: From late April through May, U.S. and NATO forces in Europe will conduct Sword 26 Exercise in the High North, the Baltic region, and Poland. Their purpose is to practice deterrence measures on NATO’s eastern flank against threats from Belarus and Russia, as well as to test new military technologies, including control systems that use artificial intelligence, multi-domain operations, and counter-drone capabilities.
On April 10, 2026, while speaking on Międzynarodowe Radio Białoruś about NATO exercises near the alliance’s eastern borders, Maryia Krusheuskaya, an employee of the newspaper SB. Belarus Segodnya, referred to the border dispute between Lithuania and Belarus. She described the consequences of the conflict as the de facto collapse of Lithuanian logistics, warning that Poland could face the same fate.
“Let’s take Lithuania as an example here. This country also closed its borders. What for, I am not sure. Then it suffered significant losses due to trucks stuck in Belarus. Now, we see that the logistics business has come to an end in Lithuania. It’s all because of the nonsense this country did with the border closure. If Poland does the same during these exercises, it could see a similar outcome,” Krusheuskaya said on the program Freedom of Speech (Wolność Słowa).
There was indeed a basis for such statements. Following the border closure at the end of October 2025, the Lithuanian National Road Carriers’ Association “Linava” warned that the country could lose its share of the goods traffic market in the east, ceding it to neighboring countries, and lose about a billion euros in revenue annually.
However, these concerns alone do not indicate that the industry is in critical condition. According to Lithuania’s official statistics, there was no collapse in international cross-border road freight transportation at the end of last year. 13 million tons of cargo were transported in the latest quarter — only one million tons less than in the previous quarter, when the border with Belarus was still open.
No disaster in monetary terms is observed, either. Overall revenue from road freight transportation nationwide did not decrease; instead, it increased: in 2024 it amounted to €10.9 billion, and in 2025 it rose to €11.3 billion.
It is also important to note that only part of the Lithuanian truck fleet was detained in Belarus. There are approximately 56,000 trucks in Lithuania. Several thousand vehicles, including trucks, trailers, and semi-trailers, were stuck in Belarus. This accounts for about 3-4% of the fleet.
In other words, individual carriers did incur losses, and the industry did experience stress, but it cannot be said that the Lithuanian logistics business has come to an end. Neither traffic volumes nor revenues show a pattern of collapse at year-end.
*Międzynarodowe Radio Białoruś (translated from Polish as “International Radio Belarus”) is a Belarusian state international radio broadcasting and media platform, a structural division of the Belteleradiocompany.
