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Economist Avdonin predicted the EU’s demise if Russia shuts its market. We looked into how important Russia really is for European exports
The statement came in response to another round of EU sanctions against Russia.
The European Union will collapse if Russia and its allies close their markets, economist Alexei Avdonin claimed on the "Editors’ Club" show. The Weekly Top Fake team set out to see if there’s any truth to that statement.
On May 20, 2025, the EU imposed its 17th round of sanctions against Russia, citing the ongoing war in Ukraine, hybrid actions against Western countries, use of chemical weapons, and serious human rights violations. The official announcement stated that the sanctions are intended, among other things, to limit Russia’s revenue from energy exports. Three days later, on May 23, the topic was discussed on the "Editors’ Club" show, broadcast on News.by and Belarus 1. Economist Alexei Avdonin said the EU could face serious consequences as a result.
“She (Russia) has shut her markets, cut off European goods, and said, ‘My friends, we're sitting on so many resources—oil, gas, rare earth metals, uranium, you name it. And most importantly, we have a market. If we shut ourselves off within the CIS, the EAEU, and the SCO, then Europe and the UK will, well … basically collapse, to put it mildly, from the economic shock of losing access to our markets,‘” Avdonin said.
EU exports to Russia have dropped threefold, from nearly €100 billion in 2021 to just over €30 billion three years later. According to Eurostat, EU countries exported goods worth more than €2.5 trillion in 2024. That means Russia’s share of total EU exports is just a little over 1%.
The main trading partners for EU exports of goods and services in 2024 were the United States and the United Kingdom. Together, they accounted for more than a third of all EU exports. Rounding out the top five importers of European products are China, Switzerland, and Turkey.
The European Union has cut exports to Russia but built new trade ties with countries like New Zealand, Chile, and Kenya. As a result, overall European exports abroad have grown by more than 18% over the past three years.
