Context: On September 2, 2026, Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, announced at an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in Ireland that the EU was preparing a new package of sanctions against Russia. The sanctions list may include approximately 1,600 individuals and companies associated with the Russian military-industrial complex. Kallas also said that the EU intends to step up efforts to cut off the supply of Western components for Russian weapons. The new package could be the largest since the start of the full-scale war.
Speaking on Belarusian Radio’s First National Channel on September 1, 2026, Mikita Bialenchanka (Nikita Belenchenko), director of the Center for International Studies at the BSU Faculty of International Relations, said that the EU’s 2028–2034 budget allocates hundreds of billions of euros to military spending:
“The European Union’s budget for 2028–2034 is planned at €2 trillion. The previous seven-year budget was €1.7 trillion … €1.3 trillion. So, roughly speaking, €700 billion is the military component.”
Indeed, the new seven-year EU budget is planned to total €2 trillion. Bialenchanka subtracted the current €1.3 trillion from this amount and found that the difference was €700 billion. He attributed the entire amount to military spending. However, the €2 trillion figure is expressed in current prices and incorporates a 2% annual deflator.. In constant 2025 prices, the Commission’s proposal amounts to approximately €1.8 trillion. Therefore, on a comparable basis, the difference from the current budget is about €500 billion, not €700 billion.
Much of this amount does not actually represent an increase in spending. About €320 billion reflects inflation and the resulting decline in purchasing power over the current budget’s seven-year period. Another €150 billion is earmarked for debt repayment. After adjusting for inflation, the real increase in spending amounts to about €20 billion.
Bialenchanka is right about one thing — defense spending will increase. However, the EU plans to reallocate funds, with spending on agriculture, fisheries, and regional development set to decrease compared with the current budget. €131 billion is earmarked for defense, security, and space — less than one-fifth of the €700 billion Bialenchanka referred to as the “military component.”