“No Illusion — Just Success.” Belarusian Authorities’ Claims of Economic Rise Fact-Checked

Oleg Romanov made his assertion during a discussion about the upcoming electoral campaign on the “Editors' Club” program on the pro-government TV “Belarus 1” on October 25, 2024. 

“It is crucial to note that [First Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus] Nikolai Gennadyevich, in his speech, addressed the responsible attitude towards wage formation. He noted that it is strictly based on real economic indicators and does not outpace labor productivity or the economic results that should underpin salaries. We are not creating any illusions... We are not overheating the economy or inflating a bubble of economic indicators in the form of salaries to create an alleged illusion of success. There is no illusion — there is success,” Romanov concluded.

In contrast, according to the latest data from the Belstat statistical agency, real wages in Belarus increased by 13% over the first nine months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. However, labor productivity grew at a much slower rate of just 6% during that time — less than half the pace of wage growth.

In 2012, Aleksandr Lukashenko himself acknowledged the risks of this pattern, highlighting how the disparity between real wage growth and labor productivity growth affects the economy. He warned that “without productivity, there is no salary because we will repeat the financial crisis that recently affected us.

In 2011, the Belarusian ruble was devalued threefold after a similar situation in 2010, when real wage growth outpaced productivity growth by a significant margin leading up to that year’s presidential election.