Antifake / Factcheck 25 September 2024

Three percent support for Lukashenko: How a Polish analyst’s claims diverged from poll results

Polish analyst Tomasz Gryguć claimed that Poles support Lukashenko. The WTF team investigated how far his statements are from reality.

Poles not only support Alexander Lukashenko but also envy Belarusians, claimed Polish analyst and writer Tomasz Gryguć on the Mogilev TV channel. He also said that Poland’s neighbors believe Belarus poses no threat to them. The Weekly Top Fake team fact-checked the information and recalled the meme about “Sasha 3%.”

On September 12, 2024, analyst and writer Tomasz Gryguć appeared on the talk show “Out Loud” on Belarus 4 Mogilev, where he discussed whom Belarusians should thank for their independence and spoke about the supposed envy of Poles.

“There would be no free, independent Belarus without the statesman, Belarusian patriot and outstanding politician Alexander Lukashenko. We Poles envy you for having such a president. Take care of him,” Gryguć said.

Alexander Lukashenko himself also spoke on September 12 about strong support for the official Minsk’s policies among Poles during a meeting with representatives of various nationalities living in Belarus.

“I won’t comment on our relations with the Polish leadership. I don’t want to say that we have brilliant relations with all Poles in Poland, but 99% of Poles understand our policies and, I am sure, support them.”

In 2023, the Juliusz Mieroszewski Centre for Dialogue in Poland, formerly known as the Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding, conducted a survey called “Poles on Belarusians and Belarus.” Most respondents said they know who Alexander Lukashenko is, and 88% said they view him negatively. Only 3% admitted to having a positive or very positive attitude toward the Belarusian leader.

On Belarusian state TV, Gryguć also claimed that Poles see no threat from Belarus:

“We Poles, the Polish people, overwhelmingly see Belarusians as friendly neighbors who pose no threat to us.”

But the Juliusz Mieroszewski Centre for Dialogue survey found that more than 80% of Poles believe the Belarusian authorities are unfriendly toward Poland. In 2020, that number was about a third.

As for how Belarusians feel about Poland, half of Poles surveyed said they see those attitudes as unfriendly. When asked what words they associate with Belarus, most respondents named “totalitarianism,” “Lukashenko” and “dependence on Russia.”

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