Context: In the first half of 2025, Poland’s population fell by 162,000 compared with the same period a year earlier, dropping to 37.4 million. At the same time, deaths increased by almost 6,000, and 10,000 fewer children were born than in the previous year.
Political analyst Andrei Lazutkin laid out what he claims are the reasons Poles are supposedly dying out in an article for Minskaya Pravda. Among them, he lists rising housing prices and the “500 plus” child benefit, which allegedly turned parents into freeloaders, as well as a lack of social guarantees that leaves women feeling unprotected. He argues the situation is worsened by the abortion ban and anxiety over the war. The article titled “Poland is dying out: fewer children, parents despised. What this means for Belarus” was published on November 28, 2025.
“The group that is more dangerous for demographics is those who could have a second child but do not want to. No one wants a third child at all — fewer than 5% of Poles have such a desire, and many are in no hurry to have a second,” Lazutkin wrote.
We checked what a 2023 survey by the local Public Opinion Research Center found on this issue. Nearly one in two Poles surveyed said they want two children, and almost one in four wants three or more. When Belarusians were asked a similar question in 2024, fewer of them wanted three or more children — 9.2% — and more wanted only one child than in Poland (42.2%).
Families with two, three or more children are more common in Poland than in Belarus (Belarus data are from 2019; Poland data are from 2021).
Lazutkin also described in his article what parental leave in Poland looks like: “There is no concept of parental leave in Poland like we have — paid leave is granted for four months (while in Belarus it is three years). You can stay home with a child until age one, but without money.”
In reality, maternity leave in Poland lasts 20 weeks, which are paid at 100% of the mother’s earnings. For the next 41 weeks — nine of which belong to the second parent — the state pays 70% of earnings. There are other possible payment arrangements, but none change the fact that parents in Poland are not left without income during their child’s first year.
The political analyst also shared what he called “shocking news” about the closure of kindergartens in Warsaw: “And here in Poland’s most promising city, kindergartens turned out to be unnecessary … The reason is that 11,000 children were born in the capital this year, compared with 19,000 in 2017, and the forecast for 2027 is only 9,000.”
The news is real: several preschools in Warsaw’s older districts have been closed. But it is hard to see why a Belarusian political analyst would call this shocking, given that over the past 10 years the birthrate in Minsk has fallen far more sharply than in Warsaw — 124% versus 59%.
Other statistical indicators confirm that Minsk lags well behind Warsaw in birthrates. For example, the number of children per woman is 0.69 and 0.99, respectively. Overall, Belarus’s birthrate is close to that of Poland. Even though apartment prices are lower in Belarus, abortions are not banned and parental leave lasts three years.
