Context: At the end of March 2026, Lithuania announced its readiness to negotiate with Belarus and appointed a representative to that end. However, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry responded with restraint, calling the approach unserious. A discussion was also prompted by a statement from U.S. Special Envoy for Belarus John Coale, who suggested that supplies of Belarusian potash — recently relieved of U.S. sanctions — could be routed to the United States via Lithuania. Vilnius refused to support the scheme but agreed to open a dialogue with Minsk, as long as the ongoing issues of smuggling via weather balloons and illegal migration are resolved.
Discussing potash agreements with the United States on the March 27, 2026 broadcast of Azaryonok. Napryamuyu on CTV, host Ryhor Azaronak and publicist Yuri Terekh attempted to explain the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash by arguing that it is more difficult for Washington to act similarly in Russia’s case.
“The States depend heavily on Canadian potash. They have to do something about it, somehow. What the global potash situation? Ah, in the world of potash, there’s Lukashenko. Meaning, Lukashenko is one player. Of course, there’s also the Russian Federation, but dealing with Lukashenko is easier. How so? Because lifting sanctions on Russia remains challenging,” said Azaronak.
“Well, it’s not going to happen yet. In the end, though, they’ll remove them. There is no other way,” Terekh replied.
“Right, eventually they’ll lift them. For now, they thought, let’s start with Belarus. It is way easier,” Azaronak continued.
This explanation does not align with the sanctions regime’s logic. The restrictions affected Belarusian potash companies. The American ban did not apply to Russian potash producers, so there was nothing to remove in their case. The founder of EuroChem, a producer of potash fertilizer, is the only person to have fallen under sanctions. But Russian potash as a commodity was not sanctioned.
Furthermore, following the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a special license permitting transactions involving agricultural commodities, including fertilizers. This exclusion was explained by the fact that the war had already disrupted food production and supply. Restrictions on fertilizer would have only made matters worse.
In practice, this meant that Russia continued supplying potash fertilizer to the United States, even during years when Belarus’s exports were subject to sanctions. Furthermore, sales from Russia increased by approximately 100% during this period. It is reasonable to conclude that a portion of Belarus’s share of the U.S. potash market shifted to Russian suppliers.
One point Azaronak was right about was the U.S.’s dependence on potash from Canada. About 80% of U.S.-imported potash fertilizers come from there. When Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, an exception was made for potash, which was lowered to a 10% tariff. Nevertheless, Canadian fertilizers remained the most cost-effective option for the U.S. Other suppliers, including those in Russia and Belarus, sold potash at higher prices to the U.S. market.
