Context: On September 2, 2026, the Belarus-RTR television channel reported on a meeting between State Secretary of the Security Council Aleksandr Volfovich and villagers whom Aleksandr Lukashenko had sent to military training camps over low performance at harvest drive. A total of 500 people from across the country were gathered and split into two groups. One group was formed in Vitsebsk and sent to patrol the most dangerous sections of the border with Ukraine. The second group is based in Slutsk. Volfovich met with the latter group. He did not specify the tasks that this group carries out, but he reported that the commanders have given entirely positive feedback on the conscripts.
On August 28, the Aktualny Mikrafon program on the First National Channel of Belarusian Radio discussed the military threat from NATO and Belarusian-Chinese military exercises. The latest of these, Swift Eagle 2026, took place in China in August. According to Oleg Kukhalski, an international relations expert, these exercises demonstrate China’s readiness to support Belarus in the event of war.
“Our neighbors in NATO countries should understand that we have quite a powerful ally — one that is also recognized worldwide — which demonstrates during these exercises its readiness to support us in the event of a fairly difficult international situation. It’s obvious: if American and Italian aircraft are being deployed to airfields in the Baltic States, what does that tell us? It means these countries are prepared to provide military assistance to the Baltic States if necessary. Let’s be frank. Joint exercises with China convey the same message.”
However, the Baltic States and Belarus have different statuses in this regard. The Baltic States are members of NATO. Alliance members have signed a treaty in which each country agrees to assist a party under attack.
Belarus and Russia have similar commitments. In 2024, the countries signed a treaty that provides for mutual assistance in the event of an armed attack or threat thereof.
China has no similar obligations toward Belarus. The countries concluded a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. In the treaty, China pledged to support Belarus’s efforts to defend its independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. China also pledged to oppose interference in Belarus’s internal affairs. The treaty makes no mention of military assistance.
In contrast, the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between China and North Korea explicitly states that if one country is attacked, the other must immediately provide military and other assistance by all means at its disposal. China signed this treaty back in 1961. As far as is known, China has no similar obligations toward other countries. Modern China also declares that it does not participate in military groupings or blocs, does not enter into alliances, but rather develops partnerships.
Furthermore, China conducts these types of exercises with more countries than just Belarus. For instance, in 2024, the U.S. identified 26 countries with which the Chinese military had conducted joint exercises. Among them was Iran, which is currently at war with the U.S. Although China has not openly come to Iran’s defense, unconfirmed reports suggest that it is secretly supplying Iran with weapons. Therefore, the joint exercises between Belarus and China do not indicate that Beijing is prepared to provide Minsk with military assistance in the event of a war. Unlike commitments within NATO or between Belarus and Russia, Belarus and China have no treaty-based guarantees of such assistance.
