Is the Polish economy stagnating? We checked the numbers and compared them with Belarus

Claims of Poland’s economic stagnation were aired August 16, 2025, in the “Week in Review” segment on the News.by channel:

“It is to be expected that at this time Poland’s economic growth figures are getting lower and lower. The European Bank explains this by the sharp rise in global uncertainty and declining external demand. However, if politicians and ministries focused on their own work instead of the outside world, stagnation could be turned into progress.”

In May, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development did lower its forecast for Poland’s 2025 GDP growth, but only by a tenth of a percentage point. That means economic growth is expected at above 3.3 percent instead of 3.4 percent, as projected in February.

Data on Poland’s post-pandemic economic trends show it has grown. Right after the pandemic — by 5 to 7 percent, in 2023 more modestly at 0.1 percent, and in 2024 growth accelerated to 2.9 percent. In 2025, leading international institutions and the Polish government expect growth of around 3 to 4 percent. In the first quarter, Poland’s GDP grew by 3.2 percent, and in the second by 3.4 percent.

In Belarus, GDP growth has been slowing month by month. In the first half of 2025 it dropped more than one and a half times to 1.3 percent. Still, the government and the Eurasian Development Bank forecast that by year’s end the figure will rise to nearly match Poland’s target — 3 percent.