Context: In September 2026, Germany announced the expulsion of Russian diplomats without specifying their exact number, stating only that the number was in the double digits. On September 10, Russia stated that 150 diplomats and their family members would leave Germany. Berlin made the decision following an incident at Leipzig Airport: in early August, a drone carrying explosives was found near a Ukrainian military transport aircraft, while another drone was discovered near the airport. It was suspected that there may have been three drones in total. German authorities stated that Russia was behind the incident. According to media reports, one alleged perpetrator had a Belarusian passport, and another had passports from Latvia and Russia. In response to Germany’s decision to close the Russian Consulate General in Bonn and the Russian House in Berlin, Russia announced the closure of the German consulate in St. Petersburg and the Goethe-Institut. Against this backdrop, Latvia announced a 300 percent tariff on the transit of grain from Russia and Belarus in early September.
On September 11, 2026, Tsimafei Syrakvash, host of the Ostraya Politika show on the Politika. Minskaya Pravda YouTube channel, claimed that Latvia’s new tariffs would make grain three times more expensive for buyers in Germany and France:
“Latvia will impose a 300% tariff on grain from Russia and Belarus, according to their prime minister. These sanctions may sound harsh, but remember that Latvia’s population is similar in size to Kazan’s. So threats like these sound particularly amusing. Given that Germany and France need the grain, I’ll be watching to see how the Latvians explain why it now costs buyers three times as much. No one expects the price to stay the same. Or have the Pribaltika* residents reached such a level of analytical thinking that they don’t believe we’ll try to profit from our sales?”
However, Latvia has announced plans to impose a tariff on the transit of grain through its territory, rather than on its sale to European buyers. The goal is to significantly increase the cost of transporting Russian and Belarusian grain through Latvia. This measure was proposed after a sharp increase in the flow of Russian grain to Latvian ports, from where it is exported. This occurred after Russia started having difficulty exporting grain via the Black Sea due to Ukraine’s actions. Grain flows from Belarus have also increased. However, a significant portion may not actually be of Belarusian origin, but may instead have been taken from Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia.
Such a tariff cannot have a significant impact on grain prices in France and Germany because of the volumes involved. In the 2025/2026 season, France imported just 40 metric tons of grain from Belarus and only seven from Russia. Together, this amounts to about 0.07% of France’s total grain imports.
Although the share of grain from Belarus and Russia is higher in Germany, these two countries together account for only about 1% of total grain imports.
The situation is similar across the European Union as a whole. The EU imported nearly 27.5 million metric tons of grain last season. Belarus and Russia together accounted for only 0.06% of this volume. Ukraine was the largest supplier, providing nearly 10 million metric tons — more than a third of imports. It was followed by the United States, Canada, and Brazil.
Previously, Russia supplied the EU with hundreds of thousands and even millions of metric tons of grain. The peak occurred during the 2015–2016 season at 1.92 million metric tons, while the lowest was recorded during the 2024–2025 season at 5,400 metric tons. Meanwhile, shipments from Belarus amounted to tens of thousands of metric tons. However, the European Union imposed high tariffs on most grains in July 2024, after which imports fell sharply. An additional €95 must be paid for every metric ton of common wheat. At current Russian wheat prices, this tariff raises the price to roughly 1.5 times its original level.
Thus, the Latvian measure is primarily aimed at curbing the transit of Russian and Belarusian grain through Baltic ports for further export. Russian and Belarusian grain accounts for such a small percentage of European imports that it could not possibly trigger a threefold increase in prices for buyers in France and Germany.
*The term “Pribaltika” came into widespread use during the Soviet era. Since Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia regained their independence, the term is no longer used in official terminology. Its use is comparable to using the name “Belorussia” instead of “Belarus.” While “Belorussia” is still used in Russian, it does not match the country’s official name and may be seen as outdated. The term “Pribaltika” is only used in direct quotes in this article. The editorial team uses the term “Baltic States” throughout the rest of the text.
